Can Hydrogen Help Decarbonize the Transport Sector?

The economics of green hydrogen remain murky, but it could be the ideal fuel for decarbonizing the transport sector. Since its byproduct is primarily water vapor, green hydrogen could significantly cut emissions stemming from the transport sector, which in 2022 was single-handedly responsible for almost one-third of total greenhouse gas emissions.

Global automakers like Toyota and Hyundai are still backing hydrogen-based fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) for passenger transport, but hydrogen is likely better suited for commercial trucking.

For one, FCEVs just aren’t cost-competitive—gasoline cars are about 40% cheaper and battery EVs are 10% cheaper, with battery costs expected to keep dropping. Two, nearly all hydrogen used today is gray hydrogen produced by fossil fuels. Switching over to green hydrogen would make FCEVs even more expensive (see our hydrogen series). Three, hydrogen is lacking in charging and fueling infrastructure; it is currently far behind the insufficient but fast-expanding network of EV chargers.

Commercial trucking, however, may prove to be a good and economical use case for hydrogen. That’s because the key advantages of hydrogen—lighter vehicles and longer ranges—are much more appealing properties for long haul trucks with high payloads than for personal vehicles.

The Pros for Trucking: Longer and Lighter

Fuel cell electric trucks (FCETs) can cover up to 700 miles on a full tank of hydrogen, double the range of today’s battery electric trucks (BETs). This makes a big difference for commercial trucks that on average travel 500 miles per day and more than 1,500 miles per trip. Not only can hydrogen go longer, it can also be refueled in just 10 to 15 minutes compared to two to four hours for BETs.

When it comes to weight, FCETs can store more energy with less mass. Hydrogen gas has one of the highest energy densities of any fuel, allowing it to store nearly three times more energy per kilogram than diesel or gasoline. Put another way, an FCET only needs about 9 kg of hydrogen fuel to travel 100 km, about a third of the diesel fuel needed to travel the same distance. In this regard, hydrogen fuel helps free up more space for cargo.

Although a hydrogen truck also has an auxiliary battery pack, it is about 1/5 to 1/2 the size of those in BETs. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that for BETs, the battery pack is more than half of the truck’s total weight, but with hydrogen, the fuel and tank make up as little as ~10% of the truck’s weight (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. Battery Truck Components Much Heavier Than Hydrogen Truck Components
Note: The above estimates for core components are based on long-haul trucks with 600 km range on a full tank, assuming other components and accessories, including frame and chassis, are similar in weight.
Source: Clean Air Task Force, US Department of Energy (DOE), Heavy Duty Trucking Magazine, and various industry and company reports.

This means an FCET can carry 5,000 kg more cargo than a BET, the equivalent of 40,000 T-shirts and 150 bags of cement. For fleet operators, this weight differential is very meaningful when it comes to operating costs.

The Con for Hydrogen Trucking: Fuel Cost 

As a newer technology, FCETs are more expensive than conventional diesel trucks, but they might have a competitive edge when it comes to upfront vehicle cost. While standard FCEVs can cost 53% and 17% more than their gasoline and battery electric counterparts, respectively, long-haul Class 7 and 8 FCETs are much more competitively priced (see Figure 2). In fact, the long-haul trucking segment is about 40% to 50% of the global commercial trucking market.

Figure 2. FCETs Are Cost Competitive in Long Haul Truck Segment
Source: DOE.

Still, the high cost of hydrogen fuel is a more significant barrier to mass market adoption of FCETs than the upfront cost of trucks. Refueling FCETs costs, approximately, over four times more than conventional diesel trucks and three times as much as charging BETs (see Figure 3). Moreover, since most hydrogen today is gray or blue, that means switching to green hydrogen will push the fuel cost even higher. In general, hydrogen fuel needs to drop to about $5/kg to be competitive with BETs and under $4/kg to compete with diesel.

Figure 3. Fuel Cost Is the Biggest Drawback for FCETs
Source: Author’s calculation.

The future of FCETs hinges on rapidly scaling up green hydrogen production to make fuel costs competitive. Right now, production levels aren’t sufficient to support a sustainable FCET market. But with strong government incentives and private investment on the rise, hydrogen trucks are inching closer to reality. Focused adoption in fleet-dense corridors and freight hubs could pave the way for hydrogen to power commercial trucking within the next decade.

Amy Ouyang is a research associate at MacroPolo. You can find her work on the global energy transition and its intersection with the economy, technology and industrial policy here.